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1894年马粪大危机：预测城市中将堆积9英尺高的马粪。
The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894: predictions of 9 feet of manure in cities

原始链接: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_horse_manure_crisis_of_1894

“1894年大马粪危机” 很大程度上是一个都市传说，由一篇2004年的文章 популяризованный，该文章声称1894年的《伦敦时报》预测伦敦街道将在50年内被九英尺的马粪掩埋。这一说法已被 опровергнут——不存在这样的文章，《时报》在2018年 опровергла了它。 尽管在19世纪90年代确实出现了对处理马粪日益困难的担忧（马粪曾经是一种有价值的商品），但“无法克服的危机”的说法被夸大了。这个问题并非通过复杂的清洁方案解决，而是通过汽车、公共汽车和电车等交通工具的出现，取代了马匹作为主要的交通方式。 如今，“危机”作为一个警示性的类比，说明了看似不可能解决的问题，随着新技术的引入和视角的转变，可能会变得无关紧要。它强调了专注于过时框架内的解决方案的危险。

这场 Hacker News 的讨论围绕着“1894年马粪大危机”，这是一个历史预测，认为由于马车交通的增加，城市将被九英尺的马粪掩埋。 评论者指出该预测的逻辑错误——需要更多的马来*清除*马粪只会加剧问题——认为相对少量的额外马匹可以轻松处理这些废物。 更广泛地说，这场讨论将这场危机视为一个例子，说明外推的问题往往随着新技术的引入而消失（在本例中，是汽车）。一位评论员还认为，该预测是由对公共卫生危机（如伦敦的“大恶臭”）以及对快速城市化进程的抵制所驱动的。 讨论中还分享了一个 YouTube 链接，可能提供进一步的见解。
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Historical notion in urban planning

The great horse manure crisis of 1894 is an urban myth that a significant obstacle to urban development at the turn of the 20th century was the difficulty of removing horse manure from the streets of major Western cities. The phrase originates from a 2004 article by Stephen Davies entitled "The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894" which stated that "Writing in the Times of London in 1894, one writer estimated that in 50 years every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure.".[1][2] However, no such article has been located and the newspaper refuted the attribution in 2018.

More broadly, it is an analogy for supposedly insuperable extrapolated problems being rendered moot by the introduction of new technologies.

The supposed problem of excessive horse-manure collecting in the streets was solved by the proliferation of cars, buses and electrified trams which replaced horses as the means of transportation in big cities. The term great horse manure crisis of 1894 is often used to denote a problem which seems to be impossible to solve because it is being looked at from the wrong direction.[3][4]

The name refers to a supposed 1894 publication in The Times, which said "In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure".[3] However, this citation was refuted by The Times in 2018 as erroneous. An article published on June 8, 1894 complained about dust and mud (rather than manure), but did not predict a crisis.[5] The reasoning was that more horses are needed to remove the manure, and these horses produce more manure. An urban planning conference in 1898 supposedly broke up before its scheduled end due to a failure to find an answer to this problem. No such statement in the Times, nor conference result, is known,[2][6] but in 1893 London there was a complaint that horse manure, formerly an economic good that could be sold, had become a disposal problem, an economic bad.[7]

In 1896, in Italy, the Corriere della Sera underlined how the proliferation of cars would revolutionize habits, resulting, among other things, in the disappearance of manure from the streets.[8]

The supposed crisis has since taken on life as a useful analogy.[6]

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