通货紧缩让中国的增长看起来比实际情况好得多
Deflation is Making China's Growth Look Much Better Than It Really Is

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deflation-making-chinas-growth-look-much-better-it-really

Last week, we learned three important facts about China's economy: 首先,尽管实现了2023年的增长目标,但最近的统计数据表明,由于中国持续的通货紧缩趋势,实际表现较低,通过从名义增长中减去物价下跌,人为地夸大了增长数字。 例如,该国14年来GDP计算中最大的“通胀因素”是目前GDP与通胀数据之间的差值。 其次,由于对中国政府今年解决经济问题的能力感到担忧,投资者信心正在下降。 新增万亿元特别主权债务的宣布未能提振士气,令人失望的是,在解决疲软的家庭消费方面几乎没有取得任何进展。 最后,尽管官方声称计算失业率的新方法可以提供更高的准确性,但青年失业率仍然居高不下。 然而,一些专家警告不要根据这些结果得出明确的结论,因为与学生群体相关的标准不明确。 总体而言,中国经济报告持续的不确定性和不一致可能会在未来几个月继续损害投资者的信任和信心。

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原文

By John Liu and Zheng Wu, Bloomberg markets live reporters and strategists

Three things we learned last week:

1. China met its 2023 growth target but the data understated challenges. Data released Wednesday showed the world’s second-largest economy grew 5.2% last year, above Beijing’s official target of around 5%. Besides a low base in 2022, when stringent Covid curbs severely disrupted economic activities, the nation’s longest deflation streak since 1999 also boosted the headline growth number.

China’s gross domestic product was reported in real terms, after discounting the price factor in nominal growth. As consumer and factory-gate prices fell last year, the price adjustment effectively inflated the growth rate.

The difference, known as the GDP deflator, is now the biggest “inflator” in GDP calculation in 14 years. Some private-sector economists say last year’s actual growth was much lower.

2. Investor anxiety is growing over Beijing’s plan to fix the economy this year. News that China is considering 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) of new special sovereign debt, only the fourth such sale in the past 26 years, did little to help market sentiment. The MSCI China index has dropped nearly 10% so far this year, down 60% from its peak in 2021. Disappointed local investors paid a premium of more than 10% for exchange-traded funds to chase Japanese stocks instead.

Investors had hoped for stronger public spending to offset weak consumption but were disappointed after Premier Li Qiang downplayed the idea of big stimulus again at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The People’s Bank of China’s surprise move to hold its key policy rate unchanged Monday also curbed their enthusiasm. Officials even avoided acknowledging that the economy is in deflation.

3. Youth unemployment data returned after a six-month halt. The 14.9% jobless rate for December still looks concerning, although it was down from a record 21.3% in June, after which authorities suspended releasing such data.

While the government said its new methodology, which excludes students, reflected a more accurate picture of unemployment, some economists cautioned the fresh criteria made it hard to assess the December number. Still, more transparency is better.

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