阿根廷中期选举,米莱的自由主义改革获得压倒性胜利。
Argentina's midterm election hands landslide win to Milei's libertarian overhaul

原始链接: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/27/argentinas-midterm-election-hands-landslide-win-to-mileis-libertarian-overhaul.html

阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱在最近的立法选举中取得重大胜利,增强了他推动激进自由市场经济改革的能力。他的政党“自由前进”获得了压倒性胜利,尤其是在历史上属于庇隆主义的布宜诺斯艾利斯省,在国会两院获得了大量席位。 此次胜利至关重要,因为它加强了米莱克服反对派否决权并维持对其紧缩措施支持的立场,这些措施已经开始显现成效——特别是月通货膨胀率从12.8%降至2.1%,并实现了财政盈余。美国也对这一结果表示欢迎,特朗普政府可能会继续一笔价值400亿美元的大型金融救助,前提是米莱取得成功。 尽管由于削减开支和腐败丑闻导致近期支持率有所下降,但预计选举结果将对阿根廷市场产生积极影响,可能导致比索贬值,正如分析师预测的那样。米莱预计将调整他的内阁,可能会吸纳来自“团结繁荣”党(PRO)的盟友,以进一步巩固他的立法议程。

阿根廷最近的中期选举对总统哈维尔·米莱和他的自由主义政策来说是一次重大胜利。这次胜利被视为在一段不稳定时期后恢复了市场信心,阿根廷债券在选举结果公布后有所走强。 讨论的中心在于,这次成功是否表明真正的进展,还是仅仅是美国400亿美元贷款的暂时效应,可能与政策实施有关。一些人认为米莱正在艰难地解开庞大的福利国家并避免恶性通货膨胀,而另一些人则质疑他的方法的可持续性。 评论员们讨论了阿根廷的历史政治格局,明确指出之前的政府更倾向于法西斯主义而非社会主义。还有人将其与英国玛格丽特·撒切尔夫人的改革进行比较,预计最初会出现经济痛苦,随后可能实现长期复苏,但也存在未来政治挫折的风险。美国的贷款被描述为货币互换,由于汇率,可能对美国有利。总的来说,这次结果被视为稳定和外国投资的机会,但长期经济影响和政治可持续性仍存在不确定性。
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原文

Argentina's President Javier Milei addresses the audience during the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos on January 23, 2025. Milei said at a Bloomberg event on January 22, 2026 that "The world should celebrate the arrival of President Trump,"before Donald Trump will star on January 23, 2025 in an eagerly-anticipated online appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing global elites whose annual gabfest has been consumed by the US president's days-old second term. (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

Fabrice Coffrini | Afp | Getty Images

Early results in Argentina's legislative elections on Sunday showed a landslide victory for President Javier Milei as voters overwhelmingly backed his free-market reforms and deep austerity measures, providing a strong boost for the libertarian leader to continue his economic overhaul.

The president's party, La Libertad Avanza, scored 41.5% of the vote in Buenos Aires province compared with 40.8% for the Peronist coalition, according to official results. The province has long been a political stronghold for the Peronists, marking a dramatic political shift.

Nationwide, La Libertad Avanza got 64 seats in the House of Deputies, up from 37, according to government figures.

Milei was aiming to boost his small minority in Congress and maintain the support of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration recently provided Argentina with a hefty financial bailout but has threatened to pull away if Milei did not do well.

Half of Argentina's lower Chamber of Deputies, or 127 seats, as well as a third of the Senate, or 24 seats, were up for election in the midterm vote. The Peronist opposition movement holds the largest minority in both houses, while Milei's relatively new party has only 37 deputies and six senators.

The White House and foreign investors have been impressed by the government's ability to significantly reduce monthly inflation - from 12.8% before Milei's inauguration to 2.1% last month - achieve a fiscal surplus, and enact sweeping deregulation measures.

But Milei's popularity had fallen in recent months due to public frustration with his cuts to public spending and a corruption scandal tied to his sister, who also serves as his chief of staff.

Political experts said that more than 35% of the vote would be a positive outcome for Milei's government and could allow him, through alliances with other parties, to block efforts by opposition lawmakers to overturn his vetoes against laws Milei has said threaten Argentina's fiscal balance.

Milei has said he expects a cabinet shake-up after the election that could include members of the centrist PRO party, a frequent ally of the government in Congress led by former President Mauricio Macri.

The election will be welcome news to the White House. Trump's potential $40 billion bailout of Argentina includes a signed $20 billion currency swap and a possible $20 billion debt investment facility.

Bonds and stocks are expected to rally on Monday as markets open, as the result gives Milei the votes and political capital needed to accelerate his reforms.

Following the results, many analysts predict a devaluation of the peso, which they say has been overvalued to contain inflation.

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