金砖国 vs 七国集团:比较2026年GDP增长预测
BRICS Vs G7: Comparing 2026 GDP Growth Forecasts

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/brics-vs-g7-comparing-2026-gdp-growth-forecasts

金砖国家——代表着世界一半人口——预计未来几年将显著超过七国集团的经济增长速度。 受到投资、贸易和有利人口结构驱动,根据国际货币基金组织的数据,2025年和2026年金砖国家经济体的增长速度预计将是七国集团的三倍以上。 印度引领金砖国家增长,2025年和2026年的预测增长率分别为6.6%和6.2%,而中国预计2025年增长4.8%。 相比之下,七国集团的平均增长率仅为1%,其中德国在2025年的增长率尤其缓慢,仅为0.2%。 这种差异凸显了全球经济格局正在向更加多极化的世界转变,金砖国家的影响力日益增强,而西方经济体则面临人口老龄化和贸易不确定性等问题。

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原文

Today, BRICS countries represent half of the global population, a coalition with growing economic heft.

Unlike many Western powers, many BRICS countries are seeing rapid GDP growth driven by significant investment, trade, and demographic change. In an increasingly multipolar world, this group is exerting more influence as it expands.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, compares real GDP growth projections of BRICS vs G7 countries, based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook October Update.

Below, we show GDP growth forecasts for BRICS nations in 2025 and 2026:

As we can see, India is projected to see one of the fastest growth rates across the bloc, at 6.6% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026.

In China, 4.8% growth is forecast for 2025 as the country strengthens trade across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Like India, growth is forecast to decline in 2026.

On average, BRICS growth will exceed G7 rates by more than threefold in both 2025 and 2026—a stark contrast visible in the table below.

With just 1% average growth for G7 countries, many countries are facing headwinds of aging populations and trade uncertainty.

Notably, Germany is forecast to see one of the world’s slowest GDP growth rates in 2025, rising just 0.2%. However, it is set to pick up to 0.9% in 2026—a trend mirrored in several other G7 nations.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on BRICS share of GDP compared with G7 countries.

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