A key logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern defense network, Pokrovsk, is close to falling, with a number of sources indicating between 85 and 95 percent of the city is controlled by Russian forces. One Hungarian security expert is warning that a counterattack could be disastrous for Ukraine.
With the fall of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, besides the obvious logistical and operational benefits it will provide Russia, it will also mean the loss of raw materials for Ukrainian steel production.
However, one Hungarian security expert, Attila Demkó, tells Mandiner that if Ukraine dares to launch a counterattack, it will “probably regret it very much.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already acknowledged that Ukraine’s situation in Pokrovsk is extremely difficult, and that Russians have infiltrated the town, but he has also denied that the city had fallen into Russian hands.
Ukrainian sources are harassing Russian supply lines with drone attacks, and posting the results on X.
Some pro-Russian sources are claiming on X that 95 percent of the city, while prominent German journalist Julian Röpcke, known for his support for Ukraine, says at least 85 percent of the city is captured. He also says there “is no sign of a counter-offensive.”
One video that is being widely spread shows Ukrainian special forces occupying three buildings, but Röpcke is also throwing cold water on this operation.
“Glimpse into the ‘battle for Pokrovsk.’ The entire video, airborne operation and battle of the GRU special unit is about 2-3 occupied buildings that are technically not even inside the city limits. Gives an impression of what ‘would’ be needed to liberate the city. Won’t happen,” he wrote on X.
Many Ukrainian sources have lamented a pending disaster. A report out of Euromaidan reported that three Ukrainian brigades were completely surrounded in the zone around the city and that it is probably too late for an organized retreat.
At the same time, Russians have also caught up with Ukraine in drone technology.
There are worries that if the city falls, Russia will have access to key Ukrainian resources.
Attila Demkó, head of the Strategic Futures Program at the NKE John Lukacs Institute, told Mandiner that the total agglomeration zone, together with the surrounding settlements of Rogynske and Mirnohrad, was home to about 140,000 residents in peacetime. However, its real significance is due to its mines.
Mining has been suspended since January, but previously, some 3.5 million tons of dirty coal were mined there annually, the loss of which could reduce Ukrainian steel production by half, representing a massive economic loss.
With just a fraction of the $4.4 billion in revenue from 2024 possibly collected this year, the impact would be huge on Ukraine’s raw material independence.
“If the Russians capture it, it is unlikely that the Ukrainians will be able to regain it, meaning this loss will be permanent for Ukraine,” the Hungarian expert says.
The area of Pokrovsk is also a strategic logistics hub, even though many buildings were destroyed during the siege, and thousands of residents remained in place – the elderly or Russian sympathizers, Demkó adds.
Serving logistics for the eastern Ukrainian theater of operations, the city and its surroundings are home to a railway distribution hub with huge storage capacities, while the H-32 highway is the most important east-west transport axis, he says. This is used by the Ukrainian army to transport supplies, fuel and combat equipment in Donetsk. Two north-south roads also run through it, on which maneuvering troops move.
In other words, the fall of the region would be a huge blow to Ukrainian logistics, while at the same time facilitating the movement and supply of the Russians.
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