With American facing a 'k-shaped' economy (Main Street weak, Wall Street strong)...

...and amid an almost complete vacuum of 'hard' economic data due to the government shutdown, 'soft' sentiment survey data continues to punch above its weight when it comes to market-moving news.

This morning's UMich Sentiment survey, with preliminary data for November, was expected to show a continued decline from October's 'flaming dumpster fire of propaganda' with expectations fading.

The headline sentiment printed at a stunning 50.3, well below the 53.0 expected and down from 53.6 ion October with both Current Conditions (52.3 from 58.6) and Expectations (49.0 from 50.3).

For some context, that is weakest sentiment reading in 45 years (with stocks at record highs and unemployment rates barely off their lows)...

Source: Bloomberg

The Marxist maniacs noted that "with the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy."

This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation.

However, the gap between Democrats' and Republicans' views of the 'Current Conditions' is at a record high...

Source: Bloomberg

The survey also shows a massive divide between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to Expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

Long-run inflation expectations declined from 3.9% last month to 3.6% in November. Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month and remained well below readings in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes.

These expectations are now below the midpoint between the readings seen a year ago and the 2025 peak reading from April.

Source: Bloomberg

Driven by a rebound in Democrats' inflation expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the propagandists over at UMich were forced to recognize one thing: consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets.

Forgive our ignorance here but how is headline UMich Sentiment at a record low going back over 45 years when expectations for personal income is rising, expectations for stock market gains are rising, the value of your primary residence is rising, and the value of any stock market investment is rising...

One more thing... UMich respondents believe that the chance of them losing their job is the highest since COVID or the GFC!!??! Who the fuck are they interviewing?

Interviews for this release closed prior to Tuesday’s elections... so does that mean sentiment will soar in the final November data as Marxism comes to Manhattan?