没有竞争?这通常是自由职业者的危险信号。
No Competition? That's Usually a Red Flag for Solopreneurs

原始链接: https://meysam.io/blog/no-competition-red-flag-solopreneur-validated-market/

## 零收入的教训:一个单打独斗者的警醒 在构建了一个技术上完美的企业邮箱查找工具FindForce之后,作者面临了一个严峻的现实:零客户和零收入。这不是技术上的失败,而是市场验证上的失败。他陷入了“无竞争”的陷阱,认为缺乏竞争对手意味着机会,而实际上这表明缺乏需求。 他作为站点可靠性工程师(SRE)的背景导致他优先构建强大的基础设施,*先于*验证核心问题,这是工程师常犯的错误。他意识到,在证明需求之前就为规模化而构建是徒劳的。 一篇Reddit上的病毒式帖子强调了一个关键的细微差别:对于资源有限的单打独斗者来说,拥挤的、*不完美*的市场比一片蓝海更有利。成功需要经过验证的需求,而不是创造一个新的类别。 现在,作者正在转变他的策略:优先考虑分发*先于*产品开发,通过一个免费的目录聚合器(awesome-directories.com)来实现,专注于不懈的客户发现,并始终首先提供价值。他的框架强调验证竞争,在编码*之前*与客户交谈,以及评估可用资源。关键要点?竞争验证了需求,对于单打独斗者来说,通过免费价值来建立受众至关重要。

Hacker News 的一场讨论强调了对单打独斗创业者的重要警告:**缺乏竞争通常是一个坏信号。** 初始帖子和一条热门评论都强调,如果没人涉足某个市场,很可能存在一个重大的、未被发现的原因。 虽然独特的想法不*一定*会失败,但它需要严格的重新评估。评论者根据经验建议,找出其他人为什么避开这个领域——这很可能是一个难以克服的问题。 成为第一个进入市场的人(“先驱者会挨箭”)是危险的。成功的最佳时机在于成为第二或第三个进入者,从而验证市场并从竞争对手的错误中学习。本质上,拥挤的市场通常预示着可行的机会,而空旷的市场则需要极度谨慎。
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原文

I spent two months building FindForce. Perfect architecture. Clean code. Zero customers. Zero revenue.

The moment that broke me wasn’t the empty dashboard. It wasn’t the crickets after launch. It was staring at my payment provider page showing $0.00 in revenue—the only metric that actually mattered.

All that beautiful infrastructure? All those nights and weekends? All that SRE expertise I’d spent 8 years cultivating?

Meant nothing.

Because nobody was paying.

The “No Competition” Trap I Fell Into

I built FindForce as a business email finder Chrome extension. Simple premise: help sales teams find and verify emails with 95% accuracy.

When I started researching the market, I found giants: Hunter, Apollo, dozens of others. My first reaction? Fear.

“How can I compete with them? They have teams. They have funding. They have thousands of customers.”

So I looked for an angle. A gap. Something they weren’t doing.

I found one: flat-rate pricing. Exceptional customer support. Speed.

Here’s what I missed: Those competitors weren’t obstacles. They were validation.

Thousands of companies were already paying for email finding tools. The demand was proven. The problem was real. People had budget allocated.

My job wasn’t to invent a new category. My job was to do it better for a specific segment.

But I was too busy being proud of my “unique approach” to see it.

How My SRE Background Betrayed Me

I spent 8 years as a SRE engineer. I built internal tools for dev teams. Kubernetes clusters. CI/CD pipelines. Infrastructure automation.

Here’s the thing about internal tools: if you build them well, people use them. There’s clear communication. Defined requirements. Immediate feedback.

I had the wrong mental model.

I thought: “If I build it excellently, they will come.”

That works when your customers are coworkers in the next room. It doesn’t work when your customers are strangers on the internet who’ve never heard of you.

I was two layers removed from real end users:

  • Internal tools serve dev teams
  • Dev teams serve external customers
  • I never had to think about external customers

So I optimized for 10,000 users before I had 10. I built for scale before I had demand. I perfected the infrastructure before I validated the problem.

Classic engineer mistake.

The Reddit Post That Changed Everything

Last week, frustrated and processing the FindForce failure, I wrote a post on X:

“Unpopular opinion: if nobody’s doing your startup idea, that’s usually a red flag, not an opportunity.”

Got some traction. Felt bold. Tried it on Reddit.

160+ upvotes. 60+ comments. 48,000+ views.

The most viral moment of my 30 years on this planet.

Here’s what I argued:

No competition often means:

  • No demand exists
  • Customer acquisition costs are too high
  • Market education burden is too heavy for small teams
  • Regulatory barriers make it unviable

The sweet spot isn’t an empty market. It’s a crowded market with broken execution.

The responses were fascinating. Some agreed violently. Others called me out on exceptions: Airbnb, Uber, blue ocean strategies.

They were both right.

The Nuance Nobody Talks About (Solopreneur Reality)

Here’s what I should have said in that Reddit post:

For VC-backed teams with deep pockets, blue ocean strategies can work.

You can afford:

  • A GTM team to educate the market
  • Designers and engineers to iterate quickly
  • Geographic advantages (SF networking, warm intros)
  • Multiple attempts before running out of runway

For solopreneurs, immigrants, new parents with limited time and zero network? Different game entirely.

I’m all three. Iranian immigrant. New father. Building from home. No alumni network. No conference circuit. No warm intros.

I have to do cold DM and cold email outreach for every. single. customer conversation.

Last week I sent 40 cold LinkedIn messages to my ICP. Got 9 responses. Booked 1 customer discovery call.

That’s the reality. Not 100 interviews. Not warm intros through YC. Not a network from Stanford or MIT.

Just me, a spreadsheet, and a lot of rejection.

When “No Competition” Might Actually Work

I’m not saying blue ocean strategies never work for solopreneurs. But you need specific conditions:

✅ You MIGHT pursue a no-competition idea if:

1. You have deep domain expertise

  • You’re not flying blind
  • You understand the problem intimately
  • You’ve lived it for years

2. You’ve done 10+ customer interviews

  • They’re actively complaining about the pain
  • They’re already trying to solve it (badly)
  • They have budget allocated

3. The market shift just happened

  • New regulation created the need
  • New technology made it possible
  • Timing is everything

4. You have an existing audience

  • You’re not starting from zero
  • You have distribution built-in
  • Think: YouTuber launching a SaaS

5. It’s a niche too small for VCs, too big to ignore

  • Not venture-scale
  • But sustainable for one person
  • Examples: specific industry tools

❌ Don’t pursue no-competition ideas if:

  • You’re learning the industry as you build
  • You have no audience or network
  • You need quick revenue to survive
  • The market education would take years
  • You’re a solo technical founder with zero sales experience (hi, that was me)

What I’m Doing Differently Now (Build in Public)

I’m done building in a vacuum. Here’s my new playbook:

1. Distribution First, Product Second

I just launched awesome-directories.com — a curated directory aggregator for indie hackers. 300+ directories, open source, Apache-2 license, completely free.

This is the opposite of FindForce:

  • FindForce: Built product → tried to find users
  • awesome-directories: Build for community → recognition → audience → monetize later (maybe even not!)

Why? Because people listen to you when you give first.

I’m not charging. No paywall. No “freemium” trap. Just pure value.

If people subscribe to my newsletter or buy me a coffee, great. If not, I’m still building trust and recognition.

2. Ruthless Customer Discovery

Before I write a single line of code for my next SaaS, I’m doing:

  • 200 cold LinkedIn DMs (sent 40 last week)
  • Aiming for 6+ booked customer discovery calls
  • Asking about their last painful experience with the problem
  • Checking if they’re already paying for a solution
  • Understanding why they’re not satisfied

I’m doing A/B testing on my outreach messages. Data-driven iteration. Engineer’s approach to sales.

Does it hurt when 31 out of 40 people ignore me? Yes.

Do I keep going? Also yes.

Resilience and persistence are founder prerequisites.

3. Value-First, Always

Every piece of content. Every tool. Every interaction.

Give, give, give. Ask little.

That’s how you build an audience as an unknown immigrant founder with no network.

The Framework: Should You Pursue Your “No Competition” Idea?

Here’s my decision tree for solopreneurs:

Step 1: Count the Competitors

  • 0-1 competitors: 🚩 High risk. Proceed with extreme caution.
  • 2-10 competitors: ✅ Good. Demand is validated.
  • 10+ competitors: ⚠️ Can you differentiate? Do you have unfair advantage?

Step 2: Talk to Customers FIRST

  • Before writing code: 10+ customer interviews minimum
  • Ask: “Tell me about the last time you had this problem”
  • Ask: “What are you currently using to solve it?”
  • Ask: “What do you hate about current solutions?”
  • Red flag: If they’re not actively searching for solutions, problem isn’t big enough

Step 3: Check Your Resources

  • Time: Can you afford 6-12 months of market education?
  • Money: Can you survive without revenue during that period?
  • Network: Can you reach your ICP without paid ads?
  • Expertise: Do you understand this domain deeply?

If you answered “no” to 2+ questions, choose a validated market.

Step 4: Look for These Green Flags

  • ✅ Competitors exist but execution is broken
  • ✅ Customers complaining publicly about current solutions
  • ✅ You have an unfair advantage (expertise, audience, speed)
  • ✅ Clear, specific niche you can dominate
  • ✅ People are actively searching for solutions (Google/Reddit evidence)

Step 5: Make the Call

  • Blue ocean: Only if you have resources, network, or deep expertise
  • Validated market: Default choice for bootstrapped solopreneurs
  • Crowded market: Your best bet—demand is proven, execution is improvable

The Honest Truth: I’m Still Figuring This Out

I haven’t cracked the code. I’m not writing this from a yacht.

I’m writing this from my home office, with a 4-month-old son in the next room, trying to build something that matters while doing cold outreach to strangers.

But here’s what I know for sure:

  1. Competition validates demand. I was scared of Hunter and Apollo. I should have been grateful they existed.

  2. Technical excellence means nothing without customers. My clean code didn’t matter. My 95% accuracy didn’t matter. Nothing mattered until someone paid.

  3. Distribution > Product. Always. The best product that nobody knows about is worthless.

  4. Solopreneurs can’t afford to educate markets. Leave blue oceans to funded teams. You need validated demand.

  5. Give first, ask later. Build trust through value. awesome-directories is my bet on this strategy.

What Happens Next

I’m continuing the 200 cold DM experiment. I’ll share the results—success or failure.

I’m building awesome-directories in public, documenting everything.

I’m doing customer discovery the right way this time. Every conversation. Every pattern. Every insight.

And I’m accepting that progress beats perfection every single time.

Will it work? I don’t know.

But I’m showing up. I’m pushing through. I’m learning.

That’s the only way forward.


Key Takeaways for Solopreneurs

If you only remember three things from this post:

1. Competition = Validation If nobody’s doing it, ask “why” before assuming you found a gap. Most gaps exist because there’s no demand or prohibitive barriers.

2. Talk to Customers Before Building 10+ interviews minimum. Ask about their past behavior, not hypothetical future. “Would you use this?” is a worthless question.

3. Distribution First Build audience through free value (tools, content, templates). Trust compounds. Then sell to people who already know and like you.


Stay Connected

I’m documenting this entire journey in public. Every lesson, every mistake, every breakthrough.

Pick your platform:

No fluff. No overnight success stories. Just raw documentation from the trenches.


What’s your take? Am I wrong about the “no competition” trap? Have you succeeded in a blue ocean as a solopreneur? Reply and let me know—I read every message.

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