Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Romanian Defense Minister recently confirmed that the US will withdraw around half of its 2,000 troops as part of its plans to reprioritize Asia, which could include drawdowns from other countries as well.

It was assessed last February that “Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO’s Article 5” since retaining a minimal presence in this region is psychologically reassuring for those countries that fear Russia and can also function as “a tripwire for deterring aggression”.

This is especially true for aspiring regional leader Poland. Trump said in early September that the US might even deploy more troops there upon request, and while that hasn’t yet happened, Poland’s Defense Ministry confirmed that US troop numbers remain stable amidst the latest news from Romania. Those two and the Baltic States also host multiple other allies’ forces, including nuclear-armed France’s and the UK’s, whose roles complement the US’ previously mentioned “deterrence” one.

Western, Central, and Eastern Europe are also being knit together through the “military Schengen”, which refers to the initiative for facilitating the flow of troops and equipment between members, while the last two regions are becoming more integrated through the “Three Seas Initiative”. Poland, which commands NATO’s third-largest army, plays a crucial role in both by connecting “mainland Europe” with the Baltic States. This explains why it’s tipped to become the US’ top European partner in the future.

From the US’ evolving perspective after the past 3.5 years of proxy warfare, its European junior partners are finally shouldering more of the burden for containing Russia, so the presence of so many of its troops on the continent is no longer required except for “deterrence” purposes. They’re much better put to use in Asia, as policy planners now seem to believe, for encouraging its junior partners there to replicate their European counterparts by shouldering more of the burden for containing China.

So long as nuclear-armed France and the UK retain their own military presences in the countries from which the US draws down its troops, then the US can expect them to “Lead From the Front” in a crisis while the US would only need to “Lead From Behind”. Those two and Poland would play the foremost roles in future tensions with Russia while the US would provide back-end support through logistics and intelligence. It could also directly escalate on its own if the going gets tough for its junior partners.

Minimal US troops along NATO’s eastern flank would draw lines that Russian troops would be deterred from crossing on pain of drawing America directly into the conflict. The direct involvement of French and UK troops in the region would complement that role by reminding Russia that the conflict could go nuclear so all sides should keep it conventional. If the crisis further worsens, then they could rattle their nuclear sabers, especially if they by then transferred some of their nukes to Germany and/or Poland.

The evolving geopolitical, military, and strategic situation in Europe is therefore such that the US is offloading most of the responsibilities for containing Russia onto Poland, the UK, France, and Germany. Of these four, Poland is the lynchpin upon which the success of this EU-fronted but US-backed containment plan is dependent for military logistical reasons, thus meaning that its ties with Russia will greatly determine the future of war and peace in Europe after the Ukrainian Conflict finally ends.