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ZDNET key takeaways

• The Linux desktop has continued its slow growth.
• Linux has been making gains in no small part because of Microsoft Windows' blunders.
• Users and governments have been losing trust in Windows and Microsoft.

My colleague Jack Wallen and I have been telling you for a while now that you should switch from Windows to the Linux desktop. Sounds like some of you have been listening.

The proof of the pudding comes from various sources. First, with Windows 10 nearing the end of its supported life, we told you to consider switching from Windows to Linux Mint or another Windows-like Linux distribution. What do we find now? 

Also: The most beautiful Linux distributions for 2025

Zorin OS, an excellent Linux desktop, reports that its latest release, "Zorin OS 18 has amassed 1 million downloads in just over a month since its release." What makes it especially interesting is that over "78% of these downloads came from Windows" users.

Now, that's got my attention... 780,000 Windows users don't download a 3.5 Gigabyte Linux desktop distribution if they're not giving it serious consideration. Linux desktop fans download different distros all the time. For them, it's a hobby. 

For Windows users? You have to think they are considering making the Linux switch.

The real top dog operating system

Many have already been making the leap. By May 2025, StatCounter data showed the Linux desktop had grown from a minute 1.5% global desktop share in 2020 to above 4% in 2024, and was at a new American high of above 5% by 2025.

In StatCounter's latest US numbers, which cover through October, Linux shows up as only 3.49%. But if you look closer, "unknown" accounts for 4.21%. Allow me to make an educated guess here: I suspect those unknown desktops are actually running Linux. What else could it be? FreeBSD? Unix? OS/2? Unlikely.

Also: What Linus Torvalds really thinks about AI and software development might surprise you

In addition, ChromeOS comes in at 3.67%, which strikes me as much too low. Leaving that aside, ChromeOS is a Linux variant. It just uses the Chrome web browser for its interface rather than KDE Plasma, Cinnamon, or another Linux desktop environment. Put all these together, and you get a Linux desktop market share of 11.37%. Now we're talking.

If you want to look at the broader world of end-user operating systems, including phones and tablets, Linux comes out even better. In the US, where we love our Apple iPhones, Android -- yes, another Linux distro -- boasts 41.71% of the market share, according to StatCounter's latest numbers. Globally, however, Android rules with 72.55% of the market.

Yes, that's right, if you widen the Linux end-user operating system metric to include PC, tablets, and smartphones, you can make a reasonable argument that Linux, and not Windows, is already the top dog operating system. Take that, Redmond!

The view from DAP

Now, of course, StatCounter's numbers, as Ed Bott has pointed out, have their problems. So I also looked at my preferred data source for operating system numbers: the US federal government's Digital Analytics Program (DAP).

Also: Inside Canonical's plan to make Ubuntu 26.04 the Linux desktop that finally goes mainstream

This site gives a running count of US government website visits and an analysis. On average, there are 1.6 billion sessions over the last 30 days, with millions of users per day. In short, DAP gives a detailed view of what people use without massaging the data. 

DAP gets its raw data from a Google Analytics account. DAP has open-sourced the code, which displays the data on the web, and its data-collection code. You can download its data in JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format so you can analyze the raw numbers yourself.

By DAP's count, the Linux desktop now has a 5.8% market share. That may not sound impressive, but when I started looking at DAP's numbers a decade ago, the Linux desktop had a mere 0.67% share. We've come a long way.

If you add Chrome OS (1.7%) and Android (15.8%), 23.3% of all people accessing the US government's websites are Linux users. The Linux kernel's user-facing footprint is much larger than the "desktop Linux" label suggests.

Also: 5 factors steadily fueling Linux's desktop rise

I'll also note that although Windows 10 should be heading into retirement by now, DAP numbers show it's still the most popular version of Windows, with 16.9% compared to Windows 11's 13.5%. StatCounter, however, has Windows 11 leading in the US, with 64.83% of all Windows users, while Windows 10 is well behind with 31.92%. 

That's still way too many Windows 10 users taking chances with their security.

But wait, there's more data. According to Lansweeper, an IT asset discovery and inventory company, in its analysis of over 15 million identified consumer desktop operating systems, Linux desktops currently account for just over 6% of PC market share.

Why is Linux growing? 

Earlier this year, I identified five drivers for people switching from Windows to Linux. These are: Microsoft's shift of focus from Windows as a product to Microsoft 365 and cloud services, the increased viability of gaming via Steam and Proton, drastically improved ease of use in mainstream distros, broader hardware support, and rising concern about privacy and data control.

Three others have emerged since then. One is that many companies and users still have perfectly good Windows 10 machines that can't "upgrade" to Windows 11. ControlUp, a company that would love to help you move to Windows 11, has found that about 25% of consumer and business Windows 10 PCs can't be moved to Windows 11.

Also: How to upgrade your 'incompatible' Windows 10 PC to Windows 11 for free - today

This hardware lockout is a key reason many users plan to ride Windows 10 beyond the end of support instead of paying for a new machine just to meet Microsoft's specs.

Another is that many people really, really don't want to move to Windows 11. A UK survey by consumer group Which? in September 2025 found that 26% of respondents intended to keep using Windows 10 even after updates stopped. Interestingly, 6% plan to go to an alternative operating system such as Linux.

Why so stubborn? Well, besides wanting to save money, surveys and vendor analyses consistently mention three main reasons users hesitate: Windows 10 is "good enough," Windows 11 is not seen as meaningfully better, and they don't like the forced interface changes (e.g., the centered Start menu, context menus, default app behavior, and Copilot integration).

Also: Linux's remarkable journey from one dev's hobby to 40 million lines of code - and counting

Gaming users are also afraid that Windows 11 will slow down their games or come with compatibility bugs. For example, Windows 11's October update came with a bug that hurt gaming performance on some NVIDIA-equipped gaming PCs.

Finally, not everyone is thrilled with Windows 11 being turned into an AI-agentic operating system. Despite all the AI hype, some people don't want AI second-guessing their every move or reporting on their work to Microsoft.

After Microsoft president Pavan Davulur tweeted on Nov. 10 that "Windows is evolving into an agentic OS, connecting devices, cloud, and AI to unlock intelligent productivity and secure work anywhere," he probably expected Windows users to be happy with this vision. They weren't.

Also: Can't upgrade to Windows 11? This Linux distro is the best alternative for your Windows 10 PC

Instead, the top response from one person on X was "It's evolving into a product that's driving people to Mac and Linux." Exactly so. If you want a traditional desktop where you control what's what on your PC without an AI Big Brother looking over your shoulder, Linux will be almost your only choice going forward.

Don't forget digital sovereignty

My last reason for people looking to Linux from Windows doesn't matter much to users in the US, but it matters a lot to people outside the US. You see, the European Union (EU) governments don't trust Microsoft to deliver on its service promises under potential US political pressure.

This has resulted in the rise of Digital Sovereignty initiatives, where EU companies and not American tech giants are seen as much more trustworthy. As a result, many EU states have dropped Microsoft programs and have switched to open-source software.

Also: Yet another European government is ditching Microsoft for Linux - here's why

That includes the desktop. Indeed, one EU group has created EU OS. This is a proof-of-concept Linux desktop for a Fedora-based distro that uses the KDE Plasma desktop environment.

It's not just the EU. The UK also no longer trusts Microsoft with its data. A 2024 Computer Weekly report revealed that Microsoft told Scottish police it could not guarantee that data in Microsoft 365 and Azure would remain in the UK.

Nicky Stewart, former UK Cabinet Office ICT chief, told Computer Weekly at the time: "You've got Microsoft touting what they describe as sovereign cloud, but what do they mean by sovereign...because truly sovereign data would not be offshored under any circumstances." 

With Windows 11 data potentially being sent back and forth to US data centers, more and more governments will be wary about trusting Windows.

Also: Another European agency shifts off Big Tech, as digital sovereignty movement gains steam

Taken together, all these shifts make Linux less of a tinker's special and more of a pragmatic option for people who want out of the Windows upgrade treadmill or subscription model.

Desktop Linux is moving from perennial underdog to a small but meaningful slice of everyday computing, especially among technically inclined users, non-American public-sector agencies, and ordinary consumer and business users who want a cheaper, more trustworthy desktop.