分析发现,随着电池成本骤降,太阳能电力可以随时可用。
Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

原始链接: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/12/12/analysis-finds-anytime-electricity-from-solar-available-as-battery-costs-plummet/

## 可调度太阳能现已具有全球竞争力 Ember 的最新报告强调,电池储能系统 (BESS) 的成本正在迅速下降,使得可调度太阳能——即与储能配套的按需电力太阳能——成为全球范围内与传统电力来源具有竞争力的选择。 仅 2024 年,核心 BESS 设备成本就下降了 40%(达到 165 美元/千瓦时),电池性能也得到了改善(寿命更长、效率更高),储能的平准化成本已降至 65 美元/兆瓦时。这使可调度太阳能的总成本降至 76 美元/兆瓦时,低于新建燃气发电厂,尤其是在依赖液化天然气进口的地区。 该报告基于国际拍卖数据和专家访谈,显示全球项目成本约为 125 美元/千瓦时,而采购自中国的设备可以显著降低成本。尽管由于关税和国内内容要求,美国成本较高,但美国仍然是一个主要且快速增长的 BESS 市场,2024 年新增了 10 吉瓦的公用事业规模电池。 Ember 总结认为,太阳能与储能相结合,不再局限于白天发电,可以可靠地满足全球能源需求的重要部分。

相关文章

原文

Ember’s report outlines how falling battery capital expenditures and improved performance metrics have lowered the levelized cost of storage, making dispatchable solar a competitive, anytime electricity option globally.

A report from energy think tank Ember details how cost reductions in battery storage technology are enabling dispatchable solar power to compete with conventional power sources.

Ember’s assessment draws on data from recent auctions across international markets, including Italy, Saudi Arabia, and India, supplemented by expert interviews conducted in October 2025.

This research indicates the industry is moving into a new environment where scaling of manufacturing capacity and competition have pushed costs down. The cost of core BESS equipment fell by 40% in 2024 compared with 2023, according to BloombergNEF’s global benchmark, reaching a record low of $165 per kWh.

Ember’s October 2025 data said a further large fall in 2025 is on track. Over the last 10 years, installed costs have fallen by 20% per year on average, while deployment has increased by around 80% per year. 

According to the findings, the all-in capital expenditure for building a large, long-duration utility-scale battery energy storage system project in global markets outside of the U.S. and China is now approximately $125 per kWh. This figure reflects project pricing, comprising $75 per kWh for core equipment sourced from China, including battery enclosures, the power conversion system (PCS), and energy management system (EMS) and $50 per kWh for local installation, engineering, and grid connection activities.

These capital costs translate into a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) of $65 per MWh. This LCOS reflects the cost of shifting electricity to a different time period.

Image: Ember

Ember said this reduction in LCOS is driven by equipment costs and improved performance metrics, such as a 20-year design life for LFP technology, 90% efficiency, and lower project financing costs due to de-risked revenue models. Longer lifetimes, higher efficiency, and lower project risks reduce the LCOS by 35% even before accounting for the falling equipment prices, said the report.

The core implication of this analysis is the economic viability of dispatchable solar.  

Storing 50% of a day’s solar output to meet night-time demand adds $33 per MWh to the generation cost. Using the 2024 global average solar price of $43 per MWh, the total cost for dispatchable solar is calculated at $76 per MWh.  

This positions dispatchable solar as a cost-effective alternative to new gas power plants, particularly in regions reliant on imported LNG. 

For the U.S., core equipment costs can reach $100 per kWh or higher in markets with higher tariffs or stricter standards. With the U.S. market facing various tariffs on Chinese imports and domestic content requirements via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the $125 per kWh BESS project capex estimate is not directly applicable to the U.S. market.  

The total equipment costs are 10% to 15% cheaper for four-hour projects, a key project duration in the U.S., as some components are sized to power rather than energy. However, even with cost variations, the U.S. is the second biggest BESS market globally, behind China, and saw record growth in Q1 2025 across all segments.  

In 2024, Texas, California, Arizona, and Nevada all saw significant utility-scale battery growth, with the U.S. adding 10 GW of utility-scale batteries nationally, an 80% increase over the previous year. This growth is accelerating the integration of solar into the grid. 

Ember’s conclusion is that solar has evolved beyond daytime electricity; coupled with storage, it becomes dispatchable, anytime power, positioned to meet a substantial portion of the world’s future energy needs. 

This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: [email protected].

联系我们 contact @ memedata.com