随着人工智能消耗芯片,设备价格可能会上涨。
As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise

原始链接: https://www.npr.org/2025/12/28/nx-s1-5656190/ai-chips-memory-prices-ram

人工智能和云计算的快速发展推动了对RAM(随机存取存储器)芯片的需求激增,导致全球短缺并推高了科技产品的价格。目前需求超过供应10%,DRAM价格本季度已上涨50%,预计很快还将上涨40%——预计这种趋势将持续到2026年才会逆转。 人工智能数据中心需要大量的内存来驱动其GPU,从根本上改变了需求格局。像美光科技这样的制造商正受益于更高的价格,并优先为这些有利可图的人工智能应用生产,导致可供个人电脑、智能手机和其他消费电子产品使用的芯片减少。 行业专家预测没有快速解决方案,理由是生产瓶颈和在2027年美光位于爱达荷州的新工厂投产之前,产能扩张有限。建议消费者现在购买设备,因为预计各方面价格将继续上涨。

这场 Hacker News 讨论围绕着 NPR 的一篇文章,该文章指出人工智能对芯片日益增长的需求可能会推高设备价格。 用户对此的反应既有愤世嫉俗,也有务实的观察。一位评论员表达了对消费主义的厌倦,而另一位则强调了广告的普遍性,并建议禁用 Javascript 以获得更干净的浏览体验。 一个更乐观的观点认为,不断上涨的成本所带来的硬件限制可能会*迫使*软件效率的提高,并重新关注原生编译语言——这类似于过去游戏机世代的转变。另一位用户指出价格*已经*很高,并链接到 Tom's Guide 的一篇文章,详细说明了内存价格危机。 这场对话涉及人工智能的影响、消费者习惯以及资源限制可能带来的创新等主题。
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原文

Idaho-based Micron Technology is one of the world's top makers of RAM chips and it's benefited from increase demand. Charlie Litchfield/ASSOCIATED PRESS/FR164915AP hide caption

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Charlie Litchfield/ASSOCIATED PRESS/FR164915AP

The world has a memory problem, thanks to artificial intelligence.

The explosion in AI-related cloud computing and data centers has led to so much demand for certain types of memory chips that now there's a shortage. The imbalance is expected to start affecting prices of all sorts of products powered by technology.

"I keep telling everybody that if you want a device, you buy it now," said Avril Wu, a senior research vice president at TrendForce, a Taiwan-based consultancy that tracks markets for computer components. "I myself bought an iPhone 17 already,"

The chips are known as RAM, or random access memory, and are crucial to making sure that things like smartphones, computers and game consoles run smoothly. Chips allow you to keep multiple tabs open in browsers, for instance, or watch videos without them being choppy.

Wu said TrendForce's data indicates that demand for RAM chips exceeds supply by 10% – and it's growing so fast that manufacturers are having to shell out a lot more to buy them each month.

Wu said this quarter alone, they're paying 50% more than the previous quarter for the most common type of RAM, known as DRAM – dynamic random access memory. And if producers want the chips sooner, they're paying two to three times more.

Wu expects DRAM prices to rise another 40% in the coming quarter, and she doesn't expect the prices to go down in 2026.

How AI is gobbling up memory

AI data centers require huge amounts of memory to accompany their cutting-edge graphics processing unit (GPU) microprocessors that train and operate AI models.

"AI workloads are built around memory," said Sanchit Vir Gogia, CEO of the tech advisory firm Greyhound Research.

What's more, AI companies are spending billions of dollars constructing data centers at warp speed around the world. It's the reason why Gogia says the demand for these chips isn't just a cyclical blip.

"AI has changed the nature of demand itself," he said. "Training and inference systems require large, persistent memory footprints, extreme bandwidth, and tight proximity to compute. You cannot dial this down without breaking performance."

More chips for AI means fewer  chips for other products

Idaho-based Micron Technology is one of the world's top makers of RAM and it's benefited from this increase in demand. It reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings last week on the back of higher memory chip prices.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expected the market to remain strong, as the AI boom continues apace. "We believe that the aggregate industry supply will remain substantially short of the demand for the foreseeable future," he said on a webcast after the earnings report.

Chipmakers like Micron have shifted production to meet as much of the lucrative AI-related demand for high-end memory as they can, according to analysts. That translates into fewer chips for other segments of the market – personal computers, mobile phones, games and consumer products like TVs.

And that means higher costs. Dell Technologies Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke noted the higher costs on an earnings call on Nov. 25. For PC's, he said "I don't see how this will certainly not make its way into the customer base."

Analysts say there is no short-term fix.

Tech consultant Wu said the memory chip industry faces a significant bottleneck. By the end of 2026, she said, chip makers will have maxed out how much they can expand production in their current facilities.

She said the next new factory expected to come online is being built by Micron in Idaho. The company says it will be operational in 2027.

Expect suppliers to keep raising prices for the foreseeable future, Wu said.

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