清洁能源里程碑的一年
A year of clean energy milestones

原始链接: https://e360.yale.edu/digest/2025-energy-review

## 清洁能源在全球获得动能 (2025) 尽管在美国特朗普政府时期遭遇挫折,2025年标志着全球清洁能源的关键一年。风能和太阳能发电量首次在全球超过煤炭,这得益于价格的大幅下降——特别是电池成本下降了90%,使得太阳能不仅在白天可用,而是始终可用。 可再生能源满足了全球所有新增电力需求,中国积极扩张风能和太阳能,推动其煤炭消费量下降,从而使排放量趋于平稳。电动汽车的普及也激增,全球新增汽车销量中超过25%为电动汽车,中国新增汽车中超过一半为电动汽车。 这一进展获得了《科学》杂志评选的“年度突破”,并显著改善了气候预测,目前预测本世纪末将升温约2.8°C——远低于之前的估计。尽管由于政策变化,美国可再生能源增长滞后,但全球趋势表明了强劲的摆脱化石燃料的转变。

## 黑客新闻讨论:清洁能源里程碑与挑战 一篇耶鲁大学的文章引发了黑客新闻关于加速太阳能采用的讨论。一个关键点是,分布式(住宅/商业屋顶)太阳能的成本出人意料地高于集中式大型安装,这可能归因于融资和土地获取成本。一些人提倡在公寓楼上广泛补贴太阳能电池板的安装,而另一些人则指出经济现实以及公用事业公司在维持现有系统中的既得利益。 对话还涉及了政策变化,例如在德国和越来越多的美国地区允许阳台太阳能,通过立法克服技术障碍。人们对可再生能源技术对特定矿产的依赖表示担忧,这可能导致新的地缘政治冲突(“电池战争”)。 最终,这场讨论凸显了经济、政策和地缘政治因素对清洁能源转型产生的复杂影响,同时也清醒地认识到,即使是乐观的减排情景可能也不足以避免重大的气候变化影响。
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原文

Even as the Trump administration rolled back support for renewable energy in the U.S., wind, solar, and electric vehicles made huge strides globally in 2025. For the first time, wind and solar supplied more power than coal worldwide, while plug-in vehicles accounted for more than a quarter of new car sales.

These milestones reflect the dramatic drop in the price of clean energy over the last decade and a half. Today, wind and solar are cheaper than coal and natural gas, and increasingly, they are boosted by ever more affordable batteries, which have gotten 90 percent cheaper over the last decade.

“Solar is no longer just cheap daytime electricity,” said Kostantsa Rangelova, analyst at energy think tank Ember. “Solar is now anytime dispatchable electricity.”

Newly added wind and solar met all new demand for power last year. The global surge in clean energy meant that, in the first half of last year, renewables generated more power than coal for the first time.

In China, the world’s biggest emitter, the rapid buildout of wind and solar is, for the first time, leading to a decline in coal power. For the past year and a half, China’s emissions have been flat or falling.

Plug-in cars, meanwhile, hit a key milestone in 2025, accounting for more than a quarter of new car sales in the first 10 months of the year. In China alone, electric vehicles made up more than half of all new cars sold. As EVs take off and sales of conventional cars diminish, it is becoming increasingly clear that sales of gas-powered cars likely peaked in 2017.

The world is reaching such milestones despite a lurch toward fossil fuels in the U.S., where the Trump administration has slashed federal support for clean energy. While investment in clean energy has reached new highs worldwide, the U.S. is seeing a decline. The International Energy Agency projects that, between now and the end of this decade, U.S. renewables will grow roughly half as fast as was predicted in 2024. 

Still, global progress on moving away from fossil fuels was sufficient for the journal Science to name the rapid growth of clean energy its 2025 Breakthrough of the Year. 

While emissions continue to climb worldwide, the climate outlook has measurably improved over the last decade. A recent report found the world is now headed for around 2.8 degrees C of warming by the end of this century, far less than the 3.7 to 4.8 degrees C of warming that was forecast before the 2015 Paris Agreement.

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