“无法投资”:特朗普1000亿美元委内瑞拉赌局遭遇石油行业现实
"Uninvestable": Trump's $100 Billion Venezuela Gamble Meets Oil Industry Reality

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uninvestable-trumps-100-billion-venezuela-gamble-meets-oil-industry-reality

特朗普总统正在推动美国石油公司在尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台后,至少投资1000亿美元进入委内瑞拉石油工业,但面临强烈抵制。虽然白宫表现出信心,但埃克森美孚的达伦·伍兹等高管认为委内瑞拉由于政治不稳定、过去的资产没收以及不确定的法律保护而“无法投资”。 在与大约20位能源领导人会晤期间,特朗普直接施压,暗示其他公司渴望取代犹豫不决的公司。虽然雷普索尔和阿姆斯特朗石油天然气等公司表示有兴趣,但许多公司对风险和长期回报表示担忧。 雪佛龙是目前唯一承诺投资的美国大型石油公司,预计在18-24个月内产量增加50%。特朗普承诺“完全安全”以及与他政府直接打交道,旨在改善商业环境。尽管预测会有“数千亿美元”的投资,但具体的承诺仍然有限,重建委内瑞拉破败的石油基础设施需要大量时间和资源。特朗普认为,如果不这样做,中国或俄罗斯将会利用委内瑞拉丰富的储备。

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原文

President Donald Trump’s push for U.S. oil companies to commit at least $100 billion toward rebuilding Venezuela’s energy industry is meeting significant resistance from the very executives he is courting, according to Bloomberg.

Although the White House projects confidence, industry leaders are warning that Venezuela remains too unstable for major investment, with Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods describing the country bluntly as “uninvestable.”

At a closed-door meeting Friday with roughly 20 energy executives, Trump said he expected an agreement “today or very shortly thereafter” to restart large-scale drilling in Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro. He applied direct pressure, telling the group, “If you don’t want to go in, just let me know, because I’ve got 25 people that aren’t here today that are willing to take your place.”

Publicly, many executives praised the opportunity. Privately and in their remarks, they expressed deep concern about risk, governance, and long-term returns. Woods delivered the strongest warning, pointing to Venezuela’s unstable business environment and past expropriations. “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it’s uninvestable,” he said, noting Exxon’s assets there had already been seized twice. He questioned whether any future protections would hold: “How durable are the protections from a financial standpoint? What will the returns look like? What are the commercial arrangements, the legal frameworks?” Even so, he added that Exxon would be willing “to put a team on the ground” if invited and given proper security guarantees.

Other executives struck a cautious tone. Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm said the prospect “excites me as an explorationist,” but emphasized the scale of the task ahead: “There’s a huge investment that needs to be done — we’ve all agreed on that, and certainly we need time to see that through.”

Bloomberg writes that Trump, however, left the meeting projecting momentum. “We sort of formed a deal,” he told reporters, predicting companies would soon be investing “hundreds of billions of dollars in drilling oil.” Yet when pressed for specifics, Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged that Chevron — the only U.S. major still operating in Venezuela — was the only firm to make a concrete pledge. Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said production, now about 240,000 barrels per day, could rise by roughly 50% within 18 to 24 months.

Trump sought to ease investor fears by promising sweeping protections: “You have total safety, total security,” he said. “You’re dealing with us directly — you’re not dealing with Venezuela or we don’t want you to deal with Venezuela.” Wright later said the administration’s priority is to “change the behavior of the government in Venezuela” and “drive better business conditions.”

The meeting included moments of levity over massive past losses. When ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said his company had absorbed a $12 billion hit in Venezuela, Trump replied, “Good write-off,” prompting Lance to respond, “It’s already been written off.”

Some executives were openly eager. Repsol’s CEO told Trump his company was “ready to invest more in Venezuela today,” and Armstrong Oil & Gas CEO Bill Armstrong said, “We are ready to go to Venezuela… it is prime real estate… kind of like West Palm about 50 years ago: very ripe.”

Still, many industry figures are uneasy about the optics and risks of the administration’s strategy, which critics argue amounts to an aggressive grab for Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Trump defended the move bluntly: “If we didn’t do this, China or Russia would have done it.”

Despite the uncertainty, Wright predicted Venezuela’s output would “hopefully” begin rising by summer and said, “They are going to ramp up investment immediately in the next few weeks… Can we achieve $100 billion investment over next 10 years? I think absolutely.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but decades of neglect, sanctions, and infrastructure collapse have pushed production below one million barrels per day. Rebuilding even a fraction of its former output will require years of work and tens of billions of dollars to repair abandoned rigs, corroded pipelines, and heavily damaged facilities.

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