Democrats entered 2026 confident they could make “affordability” the rallying cry that would win back suburban voters and propel them back into the majority. But an inconvenient political twist has upended that plan: Donald Trump is the one actually delivering on affordability - and doing it in ways his opponents are almost certain to despise.

The foundation of this shift is the administration’s aggressive crackdown on immigration. ICE deportations under Trump have sharply reduced the number of illegal migrants in the country - which, according to the White House - is easing the enormous housing demand that exploded under Joe Biden thanks to his open borders policies. 

In short, rents and home prices in many major metro areas are becoming more affordable. Though we would of course note that correlation is not necessarily causation.

According to new estimates from Brookings Institution economists, more immigrants left the United States than entered last year - the first time that’s happened in at least five decades. Net migration fell by between 10,000 and 295,000 in 2025, driven by everything from a near-closure of the southern border to tightened visa limits, new fees, and the suspension of nearly all refugee programs. 

Economists and industry experts say the housing impact is already being felt. 

For example, in San Antonio, developers built aggressively in 2025, expecting another surge of migrant renters. That didn’t happen, so landlords began slashing prices to fill new units. Kevin Lynn, founder of U.S. Tech Workers and a long-time critic of large-scale visa programs, called it basic economics. “When you crack down on immigration, legal and illegal, housing costs naturally drop,” he told Breitbart, describing the decline as a textbook case of supply and demand.

Lynn pointed to Lancaster County, Pennsylvania - a community once labeled “the refugee capital of America.” There, he said, newly renovated apartments are now being advertised with three months of free rent because demand from immigrants has vanished. “This is what happens when you take the immigrants out of the equation,” Lynn said.

It’s a stark reversal from the years under Joe Biden, when roughly 14 million legal and illegal migrants entered the country, coinciding with surging rents and home prices that outpaced wage growth. Now that the pressure is easing, the administration has an answer ready for Democrats hoping to campaign on “affordability.” Trump’s team is framing border enforcement not only as a public-safety measure but as a direct economic benefit for working households.

“Rents are down. You know the story that the Biden administration doesn’t want to talk about: The mass unfettered immigration that pushed up rents, especially for working Americans,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month. “The connection between illegal immigration and skyrocketing housing costs is as clear as day.” 

The White House clearly believes this narrative could neutralize one of the Democrats’ key talking points heading into the midterms. 

Falling rents, rising wages, and higher labor participation are giving younger voters something they’ve struggled to find for years: a sense of stability. Lower immigration is also contributing to reduced crime and drug deaths, further tying economic security to Trump’s immigration policies.

And then there’s the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the administration believes will play a huge role in giving Americans the relief they’ve been craving. The legislation aims to lock in lower individual and corporate tax rates, expand full business expensing, and let voters see more of their paychecks. The administration describes it as a direct strike on the cost-of-living crisis.

Other key provisions include higher SALT deduction caps for homeowners, no tax on tips and overtime, and a modest expansion of charitable deductions. Seniors will also see new tax breaks on Social Security income. Buyers of U.S.-made vehicles would get fresh incentives. Each piece will show that while Democrats talk the talk on “affordability” the GOP walks the walk.

Democrats built their midterm plans around the assumption that they could own the affordability issue. Trump is instead redefining it on his terms: fewer migrants competing for jobs and housing, stronger wages, cheaper rents, and more disposable income. Republicans hope that by the time voters head to the polls, “affordability” may no longer be a Democratic talking point. And it might just work.