Eric Gaus, chief economist at Dodge Construction Network, joined Goldman Sachs analysts to discuss the overall state of U.S. building construction, assessing which project types are likely to dominate and the underlying strength of the trend.

"We come away from our discussion with a continued outlook for private non-residential construction spending to return to growth in 2026 vs 2025, with strength led by data centers, power infrastructure, and healthcare," Goldman analysts led by Adam Bubes wrote in a note on Tuesday.

For those unfamiliar with Dodge Construction, the index is a leading indicator of U.S. construction activity, measuring the dollar value of new, nonresidential building projects entering the planning phase. Analysts track the index because it provides early signals for industrials, materials, engineering firms, and REITs, and often anticipates broader turns in the business cycle.

Bubes forecasted nominal growth of 2% in 2026 and 5% in 2027 in private nonresidential construction spending, with data centers, power infrastructure, and healthcare leading the way.

About 2.5 months ago, the Dodge Momentum Index showed a sharp increase in data center buildouts expected for 2026.  In May of last year, we pointed to UBS analyst Steven Fisher, who forecasted the Trump-era construction boom in AI data centers wouldn't filter into the real economy until early 2026.

"More slowing before reacceleration in 2026," Fisher told clients at the time, adding, "We expect stimulus and structural forces to drive the rebound, while cyclical factors remain weak."

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full Goldman note in the usual place, where key takeaways from the Dodge Construction roundtable offer more insight into building trends nationwide this year.