Ukraine's military is claiming it can already see the impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX's decision to thwart Starlink access to Russian troops.

Russian military bloggers began confirming the Starlink cutoff earlier this week. For example the NY Times notes, "A Russian blogger writing anonymously under the name Military Informant in the Telegram messaging app said that both the Starlink connections on Russian drones and Starlink satellite internet communications for troops at the front had been disrupted."

This may force the Russian side to more broadly rely on older technologies, and could greatly reduce reliance on small drone warfare - which has been a staple in this war.

On Friday, Politico has cited Ukrainian officials who say they notice a difference in Russia's operations along the front lines, however, such assertions are very far from being verified:

Two days after Elon Musk's SpaceX launched Starlink verification and blocked unverified terminals in Ukraine, the pace of Russia's offensive appears to be slowing, a Ukrainian military official told POLITICO.

“Currently, such a trend is indeed observed. But it will be necessary to monitor further whether it will continue, whether there will be other factors,” said the official, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

“However, at some places, Ukrainian military Starlinks which have not been registered yet have also been disconnected. But the registration process is ongoing,” the official added.

Starlink took action at Ukraine's request, after for many months Russian units were observed ferrying Starlink terminals to the battlefield, which in addition to providing basic reliable comms reportedly made drones less prone to jamming and more accurate.

Some reports are prematurely going so far as to call this a "catastrophe" for Russian forces. While SpaceX has not sold Starlink terminals in Russia due to long-running US sanctions, they are easily available on the black market and via neighboring regional countries.

But blocking access for the Russian side has not been so simple. Any largescale geofencing could cut off much of Ukraine itself, and so currently inside Ukraine only formally registered terminals are working. Ukraine's defense ministry has been calling on troops to immediately register their terminals under the country's DELTA battlespace management system, while all non-registered terminals will not function.

Musk has had a mixed track record and nuanced position on Ukraine. While early on he rushed Starlink assistance to the war-battered country, he has also at times directly clashed with President Zelensky, warning about uncontrollable escalation and NATO turning it into a proxy war aimed at destabilizing Moscow.

But he's increasingly weighed deep into geopolitical flashpoints where Washington has a role or interest, also for example recently proclaiming free Starlink access for anti-government protesters in Iran.

If Starlink is used by Ukraine to target Russian territory and its population, will Musk take action to limit Kiev's use of the technology as well?