Recently, I wrote about how we’re seeing a general softening of demand for travel to the United States, for a variety of reasons. There’s no denying that the most contentious situation is between Canada and the United States, and we now have some data that shows just how extreme the change in demand is.
Transborder flight bookings are down by 70%+
We’ve known that travel demand between Canada and the United States has been decreasing, both by air and by roads. We’ve seen some airlines scale back their flight schedules between the two countries, and we’ve also seen a substantial decline in road border crossings. However, it looks like what we’ve seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.
Aviation analytics company OAG has published some data on the decline in flight bookings between the countries, and it’s worse than most people probably imagined. Specifically, the company compared summer season bookings in March 2024 vs. March 2025. In other words, at this point in both years, how many people have booked transborder flights in April through September?
Well, I hope you’re sitting down. For that six month period, the number of tickets booked is down anywhere from 71.4% to 75.7%. Just as an example, April is less than a week away, and here’s how bookings between the two countries are looking:
- In March 2024, 1,218,570 tickets had been booked for April 2024
- In March 2025, 295,982 tickets have been booked for April 2025
- That represents a 75.7% reduction in tickets booked
I knew it was bad, but I didn’t expect it would be that bad, as that level of demand shift is something you almost never see.
Everyone can draw their own conclusions as to what’s causing this. It’s also anyone’s guess if we’re at rock bottom in terms of consumer sentiment, and if we’ll see more close-in bookings than in past years. But either way, April is right around the corner, and those drops are massive.
When will airlines slash more transborder capacity?
We’ve seen airlines cancel a bit of capacity between the United States and Canada, but nothing that nearly reflects the decline in future bookings that we’re seeing. According to OAG, so far airlines have slashed anywhere from 1.6% to 3.5% of their schedules between the two countries for April through September.
However, based on current data, that doesn’t even begin to cover the adjustments that will need to be made, unless something drastic happens soon. Obviously one would assume that Air Canada would be most impacted by these changes, given that the airline has the largest transborder network. Perhaps we’ll see Air Canada shift more capacity domestically, or to countries other than the United States, to account for where consumers want to travel to.
This can’t be an easy situation for those in airline route planning, since it’s hard to know for how long demand will remain so depressed. It’s not easy to just totally rework your route network, especially when it’s anyone’s guess how this evolves.
Bottom line
We’ve known that there has been a decline in travel between Canada and the United States. However, the situation for future flight bookings looks much worse, with an over 70% reduction in flight bookings for the summer season. So far airlines have slashed at most 3.5% of their schedules, so presumably some significant changes will still have to be made.
What do you make of these statistics on future transborder flight bookings? Are you surprised by the size of the decline?