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原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43485649

Hacker News 上的一个帖子讨论了加拿大与美国之间航空需求大幅下降 70% 以上的情况。评论员将此下降归因于多种因素,而不仅仅是加拿大经济,包括对美国移民政策和边境待遇(特别是针对非白人)的担忧,美国现任政府对加拿大的言辞和行动,以及普遍存在的在美国不受欢迎的感觉。一些人认为加拿大人正在选择其他目的地进行旅行和参加会议。被认为是长期友谊和信任的背叛,加上边境虐待的报道,被认为是重要的驱动因素。一些人认为这是美国的软实力下降。还有人讨论由于汇率和潜在的边境过境问题,加拿大人在美国不再能找到更便宜的机票。


原文
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Airline Demand Between Canada and United States Collapses, Down 70%+ (onemileatatime.com)
80 points by amichail 29 minutes ago | hide | past | favorite | 43 comments










Completely understandable. Why would I, as a Canadian who sees stories coming from the US of fellow citizens getting hoovered up into the bowels of ICE from border crossings, want to go to the US when I have a choice not to?


An understandable question, but as a Canadian flying to the US you will almost creatively complete US preclearance while still on Canadian soil, meaning you can get turned away but cannot be physically detained by ICE.


Going through pre-clearance in Canada would put you at much lower risk of hoover-age by ICE. According to the Preclearance Act all CBP can do is detain you until they hand you over to the Canadian police. ... and maybe a light strip search if the situation warrants. [1]

[1] https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/P-19.32/FullText.ht...



I'm sure that you have a point, according to written policy and law.

Trump has made a point of not caring about stuff like that, so who really knows?



Since US citizens have no reason not to visit Canada (unless you count the return crossing), I suppose this will strengthen the already very healthy international conferences taking place there.


The return crossing is a huge concern. I have already decided I am not comfortable taking any international trips for the foreseeable future.

I do not need thugs at the border to give me a hard time because they feel empowered to do whatever they want. My non-white (but Americans born) partner is even more concerned.



I have to say as someone living outside the US, it's been great. The calendar over here is filling up to the brim with exciting events and conferences that can't risk being held in the US anymore.


People have said this a lot online, but as someone that attends conferences I am not familiar with any conferences that didn’t previously meet outside of USA ditching USA.


It it extraordinary watching a small team lead by a convicted felon tear down the US from the inside with seemingly full authority.


I help run a small annual founders retreat with around 20 other folks, and this is the first year we have zero Canadians attending (typically ~25%).

These are folks I know and talk to, and they're not even so much explicitly boycotting the US as the rhetoric is enough that they just feel sort of uncomfortable and unwelcome.



It would be fascinating to see this trend data matched with statistics on how many Canadians are embarking on their journey from the US. Historically, Canadians will drive across the border in search of cheaper airfare in the US. Cities like Buffalo, NY, Burlington, VT, Detroit, MI, Minot and Grand Forks, ND.

At least that's been my anecdotal experience flying in and out of those cities. In Buffalo for example I distinctly remember literal bus loads of Canadians staying at nearby hotels before boarding US carriers headed for warmer destinations.

I suspect with the current environment, both are down. Still would be interesting though.



> Historically, Canadians will drive across the border in search of cheaper airfare in the US. Cities like Buffalo, NY, Burlington, VT, Detroit, MI, Minot and Grand Forks, ND.

I don't see that being the case for quite a few years. USD 1 has been ~ CAD 1.30 for a few years, so any US flight would need to be 24% cheaper dollar-to-dollar to even consider it. And that is before taking into account driving costs, traffic jams and wait times at the border crossing.



I'd guess warmer destinations in the US.

Flying from Canada to non-US destinations is often MUCH cheaper because there's no TSA fees (which the US puts on the departing airport) for the return leg.



My parents cancelled their European vacation this summer because they're embarrassed


Planning a couple trips from WA to BC this year - so long as we are allowed in. US border patrol has generally been less than pleasant (coming back as a citizen) at the car crossing for decades.


Write your congress repetitiveness. So long as they think we are happy they won't do anything. If they think we are mad things will change. Make sure you get everyone else you know to write as well.


I (used to) make that trip every few months. When I switched from visa to green card, those agents started to say “Welcome home.” and it made me feel good.

I wonder if they will still do that. My next time crossing will be the first with US citizenship and passport.



The magnitude is surprising for this to be attributed to the trade dispute - I wonder if this is primarily due to immigration concerns? I know a lot of folks on H-1B visas from Canada, and I imagine for those folks any non-essential international travel would seem overly risky.


It'll be part boycott, part cancellation of business trips because it's too difficult to do business with the US, part concerns about US immigration doing crazy things, and part delaying booking trips to the last minute (the figures are forward booking data) because who knows what'll happen next


Is there a good way to look up how many people are in the U.S. on H-1B visas from Canada?


Are Americans not aware that their head of state is threatening to annex us? Oh, and judging from social media comments, his supporters think this is a really nifty, clever idea.

Why do you think this is about a trade dispute?



Exactly. It’s being felt the same way Georgia and Ukraine have come to feel about Russia.

The US can no longer be trusted. They’ve squandered a century of friendship. For nothing.



It’s originally based on simple disrespect. Canadians are LIVID that their best friend country just changed its personality to one of betrayal and derision.

The second factor is multiple stories this month of non-criminals being treated like terrorists in cells and extrajudicial abuse.

The US now looks like North Korea from the outside.



It may not be obvious if you are in the US but the reaction of Canadians to Trump’s 51st state garbage is extremely strong in Canada.

The tariffs are one thing, and pissed people off, but the rhetoric is what has really done the damage.

It’s viewed as a complete betrayal, and as a real and serious threat to Canadian sovereignty.

I work for an American company from Canada, and have changed my financial planning because I’m not sure if I’ll be able to keep doing that.

When I see a 70% drop I’m surprised it isn’t more.



If nothing can happen in the US without a corporate lobby backing it, maybe the tourism industry will re-inject some care for due process and rule of law into security. Abuses have been a non-partisan flaw growing in magnitude, little by little for many years now, far beyond anyone's interests.


The Airbnb co-founder is at DOGE now, so I wouldn't hold out much hope.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-hosts-ditch-platform-billi...



I live in Florida and follow local news. There are snowbirders who have come here for years. But now are thinking about going somewhere else for the winter. But not just because of the news.

They are actually being treated differently by people they use to consider friends because their friends are believing everything they hear and read.

Now, they are looking to spend winter in Costa Rica and Panama City.



"Everyone can draw their own conclusions as to what’s causing this." - Trump caused this. It's clear and simple.


Keep calling it transborder traffic and the administration will block it entirely.


The Department of Transportation is next up.


This is just the beginning. Welcome to being a pariah state.


I think it will take a minute to sink in. The US was already leaking soft power since one or two decade. But now it’s hemorrhaging it.


More like a grand cavitation or amputation.


Yes, but the important thing is which country's travel industry is hurting more than the other /s


As much as I dunk on Canada, in this case they are right. The administration went full retard on Canada for no reason and you never go full retard.


Slurs have no place on HN. If you can't find a way to express your displeasure without using slurs, do us all a favor and keep it to yourself.


This could just be related to how sour the economy has been in both countries. I don’t know a lot of people booking vacations right now.


I enjoy touring states from the UK. I now have very little zero interest in flying to a country where A, the administration is incompetent and B, bullies other countries.

Add to the mix of Boeing planes falling apart mid-flight doesn't fill me with confidence either.

Many people over here echo the same opinion and where-by Disney Land is one of the mainstream attractions co-workers I speak to are looking elsewhere.

The UK is normally one of the major countries that provide tourism for the country. So it's not just local, it's global.



Yup… as a Brit who’s holidayed, been to conferences and done business in the US I currently have zero interest in going there ATM


“Everyone can draw their own conclusions as to what’s causing this. It’s also anyone’s guess if we’re at rock bottom in terms of consumer sentiment, and if we’ll see more close-in bookings than in past years. But either way, April is right around the corner, and those drops are massive.”

One point I’ll make is the Canadian economy is not doing well regardless.



The Canadian economy is not doing so poorly that it could explain a 70% drop nearly overnight.


The job market for one is brutal. It’s all interconnected. Its been leading up to this for some time.


The context is that Canadian airlines aren't seeing 70% drops in forward bookings anywhere else and WestJet is adding routes to Europe to replace US flights...






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