亚洲在全球经济最乐观的国家中占据主导地位
Asia Dominates The World's Most Economically Optimistic Countries

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/asia-dominates-worlds-most-economically-optimistic-countries

2025 年全球经济情绪持谨慎乐观态度,51% 的消费者认为经济情绪将会走强。亚洲国家,特别是印度尼西亚、马来西亚和印度,由于供应链的转变和人口结构而感到乐观。南美洲也持积极态度,尤其是阿根廷、秘鲁和巴西。在减税和关税削减的推动下,美国的乐观情绪有所增强,54%的人预计经济增长。相比之下,欧洲国家则因贸易担忧和俄乌战争带来的能源冲击而持悲观态度。中国的前景较为乐观,78%的消费者表达了积极的看法。日本和韩国的看法更为消极。总体而言,尽管存在混杂的信号,但略多的消费者认为 2025 年全球经济将比 2024 年更加强劲。


原文

Over the last year, the future strength of the global economy has been a mixed picture amid rising protectionism and geopolitical conflict.

In the U.S., growth was resilient - but higher prices, despite cooling inflation, continued to squeeze consumer wallets. European economies faced slower growth, with Germany facing a two-year downturn. In China, property market troubles weighed on consumer confidence and economic growth.

Given this backdrop, how confident are people around the world in the global economy looking ahead to 2025?

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows global economic sentiment by country, based on survey data from Ipsos that asked respondents whether they felt the global economy would be stronger or weaker in 2025 compared to 2024.

Below, we show how consumers view the global economy across 33 different countries, drawn from a survey of 23,721 adults between October 25th and November 8th, 2024:

Overall, consumers are slightly more optimistic about the global economy going into 2025, with 51% agreeing it will be stronger than in 2024, on average.

This is a one percentage point increase from last year’s survey results which were an even 50/50 split.

Going into 2025, the most optimistic countries are in Asia, particularly emerging markets like Indonesia, Malaysia, and India that have benefited from shifting global supply chains and demographic factors. Moreover, Indonesia and India are forecast to see among the fastest real GDP growth across major economies over the next decade.

When it comes to China, 78% of consumers have optimistic views on the global economy while Japan and South Korea are the two countries in Asia with a notably pessimistic outlook for the global economy next year.

In South America, the most optimistic countries include Argentina, Peru, and Brazil. Under President Milei, Argentina has seen its first fiscal surplus in 12 years driven by sweeping budget cuts and reforms. As inflation has plummeted, global economic confidence has significantly improved among Argentinians since last year.

For U.S. consumers, expectations rose by nine percentage points from last year’s survey, resulting in an optimistic majority of 54%. While tariffs stand to add new price pressures, Trump’s proposed tax cuts could help support economic growth.

By contrast, European countries have the most pessimistic views on the global economy. Amid looming trade wars and sustained energy price shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war, seven of the 10 most pessimistic countries were found on the continent.

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