In the 1970s, the concept of peak oil gained societal traction during years of skyrocketing gasoline costs and a pivotal energy crisis.
The theory was simple yet captivating: oil is a limited resource and therefore will one day run out. As demand rises and supply shocks got worse and worse, it was reasonable to assume that society would be forced to adapt to a whole new energy reality.
For various reasons, peak oil never happened - but that hasn’t stopped researchers from applying this same “peak” concept to bring other developing trends into the public consciousness.
Peak Child is in the Rearview Mirror
While everything from peak population to peak coffee has been proposed, there is one peak that it looks like we’re already on the other side of: peak child.
The below chart from Our World in Data shows data and projections for three global populations: 0-5 years old, 0-15 years old, and 0-25 years old.
Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes that as of 2024, all of them are officially on the downslope.
When Did We Hit Peak Child?
While peak child is not as dramatic as running out of oil or water, it is a significant turning point in global demographics.
When this peak occurred, of course, depends on which exact age group we’re talking about. For children under five years old, the peak occurred in 2017. For young people under 15 years old it was in 2021, and for the under-25 demographic it was 2024.
But as you can likely sense, peak child is the first step in actually hitting the aforementioned prophecy of peak population. And in case you are wondering, the most recent projections from the United Nations have the global population starting to decline in the year 2084.
That said, these peak forecasts are always subject to change—and one technology that could potentially delay a top in global population revolves around the recent advancements in combatting aging.
Want to learn more about global demographics and population age groups? Check out this visualization that breaks down all 8 billion people into different age brackets.