The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has jumped a massive four points and hit 23 percent following the Aschaffenburg attack, which saw yet another foreigner go on a murder spree, this time resulting in the murder of a 2-year-old child and a 41-year-old man.
The new poll, from YouGov, shows not only the AfD soaring higher, but also the two main left-liberal parties, the Social Democrats and Greens, dropping by a huge margin. The SPD lost four points to fall to 15 percent while the Greens dropped two points to 13 percent.
Notably, following the attack in Aschaffenburg, the Greens actually called to accelerate immigration by liberalizing family reunification laws. They also rejected calls to secure the border.
The new poll not only shows the strength of the AfD following a wave of high-profile terror attacks and everyday crime from Germany’s expanding migrant population, but it also threatens a potential coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the SPD following the election. If the election were to run today, the CDU, which has 29 percent, would not have enough support to form a majority with the SPD at 15 percent.
However, much depends on how many parties enter parliament and the allocation of seats. The latest poll shows the FDP crashing entirely out of government with only 3 percent of the vote. The BSW would enter government along with the Left Party, both at 6 and 5 percent, respectively. Commentators have considered a possible CDU, SPD, and FDP government, but with no FDP, this would not be possible.
The worst-case scenario for the establishment parties is if the AfD continues to grow in support.
Some polls have put their voter potential slightly higher than 30 percent, but it remains to be seen whether they can grow their lead.
The AfD is taking a victory lap after the poll, with AfD politician Martin Hess writing on X:
“The gap to the Union is shrinking. We know: There is still more we can do! Therefore vote AfD on February 23rd.”
The AfD is pushing for the CDU to join them in a coalition, a move that has so far been completely ruled out by CDU leader Friedrich Merz. However, such a vow was also recently made in Austria, which quickly collapsed when the center-right ÖVP was unable to form a coalition without the right-wing FPÖ. Now, the FPÖ is in negotiations to form a new government, including with a potential FPÖ chancellor, Herbert Kickl.