即将到来：“冷空气大量涌入。让人想起 2013/14 冬季”

即将到来：“冷空气大量涌入。让人想起 2013/14 冬季”
Incoming: "Big Dumps Of Cold Air. Reminiscent Of 2013/14 Winter"

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/round-two-big-dumps-cold-air-reminiscent-201314-winter

由于美国极端寒冷天气的预测，美国天然气期货价格达到 4.279 美元/MMBtu。预计这股冷锋将成为本季最冷的天气，并将延伸至南部腹地，预计将持续到本月底。根据天气模型和彭博社数据，预计气温将下降，供暖需求将增加。寒流加上液化天然气出口量高，导致高盛上调了天然气价格预测。下 48 州将经历冰冻气温，平均气温低于季节性正常水平。供暖度日数将激增，这意味着能源消耗增加。寒潮和液化天然气出口量的增加已将价格推向 4 美元/MMBtu 的水平，预示着未来价格可能上涨。

下 48 州“非常寒冷的模式正在形成”，天然气价格创年内最高 2024-11-21

天然气期货在预测的“历史性寒冷”之前飙升 2024-12-30

下 48 州“寒冷天气未能持续”可能会阻碍天然气涨势 2024-12-02

在冷滴入侵之前天然气价格接近突破水平 2024-11-13

原文

US natural gas futures spiked to an intraday high of $4.279/MMBtu during Sunday evening trading, driven by forecasts of another round of cold air set to sweep through next week.

"The pattern ahead is about as favorable as it gets for big dumps of cold air. Reminiscent of 2013/14 Winter at times in terms of the cold set up. Most of the country in the deep freezer by Day 8," private weather forecaster BAMWX wrote on X.

BAMWX said the "major cold shot" will be the "coldest air yet this year" and "extend all the way to the Deep South."

"One feature that has continued reoccur throughout this winter has been what we call the +TNH or the Hudson Bay Vortex," the private weather forecaster said, adding, "We haven't had a consistent +TNH pattern through winter in several years. The only recent year that had a strong +TNH was 2022."

BAMWX noted, "This type of pattern was more common in the early 2010s/late 2000s."

According to data compiled by Bloomberg and several weather models, average temperatures across the Lower 48 are forecasted to plunge early next week. Depending on the model, temperatures could range between 20°F and 30°F, remaining well below the 5-, 10-, and 30-year averages through the end of the month.

Heating degree days, a measurement of how cold the temperature is and how much energy is needed to heat a building, for the Lower 48, is expected to soar. This is an indication energy demand will jump even higher.

The continued cold blast and another round of frigid temperatures sent US NatGas prices as high as $4.279/MMBtu in the overnight hours.

Last week, Goldman Sachs co-head of Global Commodities Research Samantha Dart explained more about the next round of cold plus elevated LNG exports that forced her to revise her Henry Hub summer 2025 $2.90/mmBtu forecast to $3.30/mmBtu. The prospect of rising LNG exports leaves the analyst's 2026 target of $4/mmBtu "skewed to the upside."

BAMWX's meteorologist Bret Walts provides clients this morning with a long-range forecast for the Lower 48:

All eyes are on the $4/mmBtu level.

即将到来：“冷空气大量涌入。让人想起 2013/14 冬季” Incoming: "Big Dumps Of Cold Air. Reminiscent Of 2013/14 Winter"

即将到来：“冷空气大量涌入。让人想起 2013/14 冬季”
Incoming: "Big Dumps Of Cold Air. Reminiscent Of 2013/14 Winter"