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原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43634806

Hacker News 上的一篇帖子讨论了特朗普将对大多数国家(中国除外)的关税临时下调至 10% 的决定,此举引发了市场波动和伦理担忧。评论员指出,这给企业带来了不确定性,并质疑特朗普的稳定性,一些人甚至承认他们从市场波动中获利。尤其考虑到特朗普之前建议购买 DJT 股票,人们对潜在的内幕交易和操纵表示担忧。一些人对股市的可靠性表示怀疑,认为其很容易被操纵。另一些人则认为这是一个获利的机会。许多人担心特朗普反复无常的政策会对长期经济产生影响,一些评论员指出,其他国家正在通过提高对美国商品的关税来进行报复。一些人则梦想建立一个统一的全球共同市场。


原文
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Trump reduces tariffs to 10% for 90 days on all countries but China (cnbc.com)
82 points by bhouston 1 hour ago | hide | past | favorite | 50 comments










One thing companies love is lots of uncertainty like this. It keeps their accountants entertained! "Maybe we should build a factory in the US" ... 24 hours later ... "well, not today".

What's really amazing is all the muttering from "Ver Important Wall Street" type people who are muttering that he's insane. Like... with that kind of salary, weren't you paying attention? We've known he wasn't right in the head for a while now. Maybe they should be replaced by AI.



The very stable genius does very stable genius things again.


I'm tired of winning.


At least I'm "winning" my 401k and stock portfolio back...

Sigh



I made a fortune. Sold my play account about 3 weeks ago, put 50% back into the S&P yesterday morning. Just sold it again.

It's great if you're up for some gambling.



No, we have to keep winning. We have to win moooore!


Textbook. His textbook. Art of the deal.

He's not unstable, just very aggressive. He did have a plan.

We can argue about the merits of his plan, but dismissing him and his advisors as stupid or insane is underestimating them.



If anyone had advanced warning, you could have made a fortune today:

https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-...



Like if the president had posted that “now is a great time to buy DJT” 15 minutes before announcing the pause?


Spy went from 497 to 505 by 1:05pm (announcement was later at 1:18pm). Then onwards to 530+.

Clearly some listened or simply had knowledge the announcement was coming.



I'm sure this will be a talking point for the next couple years. "I caused the biggest surge in the stock market in 5 years."


Lots of stocks are up 10-15% instantly after this announcement. Curious if we'll get reports of suspicious options volume capitalizing on this information.


why do people still trust stock markets if manipulating them is that easy?


Traditionally US stockmarkets are not that easily manipulated. This type of blatent grift and insider trading was for banana republics, and that's why stock markets in those places aren't serious.



To be clear, here, this form of "manipulation" is kind of impossible to really deal with? Or do you have something in mind that should be able to more smoothly work with this?


Your question presupposes something I think that most people do not believe.


Who would report it?


Wouldn't be too suspicious, since Trump people told people to buy into the stock market before announcing this.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1143082727259...



Well I bought this morning (not a large trade), based not on insider information but on the obvious outcome. Also the dynamic signal that Trump spent 2h spewing utter nonsense at a donor dinner last night, but the market didn't go down this morning. Signaling that something was in the works one way or another.

Edit: best to note that Trump is still doing plenty to destroy the US economy, so be careful out there.



Probably lots of happy white house staffers and congressmen today.


Remember how every other President put their assets into a blind trust, so that they couldn't (easily) pump-and-dump the market by screwing over We The People?


Learn about limit and stop loss orders, come in handy in times of high volatility I am finding :)


Learned their lesson and formed a whole new Signal group.


By the same token, 24 hours and a tweet can have it all come crashing down once again. Nothing is real anymore.


oh they did dont worry


I bought VOO and AMZN yesterday. First time buying an individual stock since pandemic. Kicking myself for not buying more. Still waiting a week to possibly buy more if there's another shock, but if the market's up, I'll buy less.


That's stock speculation for you, everything you do is wrong in retrospect


I just buy during big fucking crises, either individual stocks or index funds. Front page of the NYT type shit, "existential threats" to 100+ year old concerns. Boeing, Toyota, pandemic. Such opportunities only come up every 2-3 years or so. Sell after 1-2 years to get the lower tax rate.


when the market dropped 1100 points in a day was the time to buy. Buy the DIP!!!


Actually you did have advance warning because there has been several days of wall-to-wall finance bro and republican heads on TV saying the tariffs were batshit crazy. Under those conditions there are only two outcomes: 1. the tariffs were rolled back or 2. Trump is removed from office (and the tariffs rolled back).


Those aren't guaranteed. I do believe Trump is in danger of being removed if the economic damage of the tariffs becomes too great since the one thing truly sacrosanct in America is the economy.

But the timeline would hardly be immediate. We'd have to go through considerable pain before the government would act.



So we're all in for another ride like this in 3 months? How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment?

As nice as this surge is, I'm more focused on upping my cash reserves and bracing myself for a recession.



I wonder if the stock markets will learn to disregard the US president for the next 4 years


So he's basically gaming the market with insider trading.


The stable solution to this problem is infinite tariffs everywhere.

But then these are politicians they will declare 2*infinity tariffs.



Threaten people with a 49% national sales tax, and suddenly they celebrate when it's only 10%.


Doesn't help America as much as some people might think. The world has seen that Trump is erratic, and America imports too much from China to just ignore the 125% (!!!) tariff on the country.


I hope the rest of the world keeps their retaliatory tariffs up. America needs to be taught a lesson.


How can anyone take him seriously on this sort of stuff? He flip/flops constantly. If he isn't a serious negotiator, other countries/companies aren't going to take his threats seriously.


*How can anyone take the US seriously?


The Chinese are warning their citizens about travel to the U.S.

> China issued an alert warning its citizens and students of the potential risk of traveling in the U.S. and attending schools there. > > “Recently, due to the deterioration of China-US economic and trade relations and the domestic security situation in the United States, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism reminds Chinese tourists to fully assess the risks of traveling to the United States and be cautious,” the ministry said in an alert.

Can't blame them honestly



Tyrant


Tyrant because he got almost the entire world to lower their US tarrifs within a couple of days?


...he didn't. The EU just announced retaliatory tariffs a few hours ago. China is also retaliating in a big way.


My dream scenario: The rest of the world would band together and upper the mininum tariffs levels against US imports to 10% for 90 days.


My dream remains a global common market


The EU already charged a 10% tariff on US cars


39% on agricultural imports from the US.

Lee Kuan Yew referred to Europe as "fort Europa" for a reason many decades ago..



And offered 0% tariffs on all physical goods weeks ago. But no, Trump is financially illiterate and doesn't understand the concept of VAT.






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