Trade dispute? Well that is one way to call it. The threats of annexation (to us, Greenland, Panama…) general disrespect, news of people being held at the border for days and then deported, all with ongoing support for the party doing this that ran on this platform is something is else.

Same happens for Europeans; they do not want to travel to the US. Even some embassies call for caution, like Germany and the UK due to border/visa issues that happened.

> A 10 per cent drop in Canada-U.S. travel would risk 14,000 American job losses and US$2.1 billion in lost spending, the association estimates.

So it's a large-ish visible economic impact but probably distributed over the surface so not felt as an apex problem in ways which will strongly inform the US side of things.

If enough of it converts to domestic tourism there will be improvements in consumer spending also fairly widely distributed but the Canadian government may be more motivated to quantify this.

It wouldn't be that widely distributed the majority will be in Florida and Arizona if the snowbirds look elsewhere. Border cities used to cross border shopping trips will also be impacted. I would be surprised if the drop is that low too, just about every Canadian I know is avoiding travel south unless it's already been paid for.

The article quantifies the cost at 10% but the actual decline in flight is 70% so it's "do the maths" I doubt 70% will sustain but its certainly billions.

I wonder if there is a discrepency between the numbers for "travel" and "flights". The US and Canada share a large land border. I would imagine that people who cross at a land border would be more stable in their patterns. Land travelers are much more restricted in where they can go, and more likely to have regular destinations they make habits out of.

If I’m the government of Mexico, I am taking this opportunity to go on a huge media blitz in Canada. Their tagline could be “Skip the US, literally”.

That's what I was thinking too - this is a huge opportunity to all non-US holiday spots in North America.

What's quite funny about all this, is that the damage Trump has already done, will not disappear quickly. He insulted pretty much every ally country on earth and the disrespect he and his administration show is mind blowing. It's only been 2 months and there are already millions of people in the West who stop buying American and will not go there.

US is about to find out why their stock market was recently valued more as a % of the whole world economy, and not only the US economy.

[dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43485649

Would not want to travel to the US right now if I weren't already from here

US citizens may not want to travel internationally because they don't trust US customs and border agents upon their return.

About 20 years ago a customs agent asked me, "are you thanking the lord Jesus Christ that you have returned safely to America". You just tell them what they wanted to hear and you were fine. Now if I am not mistaken, they can demand you unlock your phone which might show you were at a Tesla Takedown rally, or purchased a movie ticket to No Other Land, or whatever else is deemed verboten. I am unclear how long a citizen can be detained/delayed by a customs agent without cause.

Yeah even if you remove politics from the equation (which is impossible to actually do of course), I wouldn't travel to the US as an outsider just for the practical realities of the personal hardship it might cause, especially if you ever said a single negative thing about the current administration or Israel on social media or you happen to be brown and have tattoos.

(For context I am a US citizen living in the US, and terribly embarrassed to admit this because holy shit we've really dropped the ball)

Based on the news I've seen I'm not sure being from there is a good reason to travel there either.

The wider context seems missing: Rapid ramping down of fossil fuel based air travel is needed to mitigate the climate disaster.

If we've got data, let's go with the data.

Aviation accounts for about 2.5% of global CO² emissions.

https://ourworldindata.org/global-aviation-emissions

Rapidly ramping down fossil fuel based air travel will have approximately no effect on climate.

From your link: "Although CO2 gets most of the attention, it accounts for less than half of this warming. Two-thirds come from non-CO2 forcings." So it's much over 5%.

All of transport sector emissions makes up 20%. The other subsectors are decarbonising, but there's no tech solution in sight for air travel in the needed timeframe. And air travel is growing alarmingly quickly (doubled between 2006 and 2019).

All the individual slices of the pie we can tackle are pretty small, aviation is one of the bigger ones. We can't keep subdividing and then concluding for each one that it's too small to matter.