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原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43611289

Hacker News 的一个讨论围绕着美国关税对全球科技格局,特别是对欧洲的潜在影响展开。一些人谴责关税有害,并认为其源于“纯粹的邪恶”,另一些人则看到了有利的一面:随着各国建设自己的科技基础设施,打破美国垄断,互联网可能会更加多样化和竞争激烈。人们担心美国作为可靠伙伴的可信度下降,这促使欧盟优先考虑内部战略需求的解决方案。一些人认为,这是由美国内部问题推动的,美国的科技公司正在努力应对反垄断努力。评论员预测,无论政府是否更迭,损害已经造成,向独立技术栈的转变不可避免。但人们怀疑欧洲是否具备在财政和政治上认真挑战美国大型科技公司主导地位的意愿。

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  • 原文
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    How new US tariffs are forcing Europe to rethink its entire tech stack (temrel.com)
    51 points by bulla 58 minutes ago | hide | past | favorite | 18 comments










    It's not the taxes, it's the loss of trust and security.


    Yep. I think package/source repositories will need to add "Political Sphere" right next to "License" in the top-level information so tech people can choose the right dependencies. Companies/projects will need to have a political policy just like they have a legal policy.


    This is broadly a good thing: it will lead to more competition and a more vibrant, diverse internet with a wider array of choices. It does, of course, suck for the companies that are used to being near-monopolies.

    Which is not to say that the tariffs are a good thing at all, of course. But if it encourages international communities to build their own stacks and add them to the marketplace, that's a really strong silver lining in my mind.



    this is also my thinking. what trump is doing is pure evil, but he will have unintended positive consequences by undermining american monopolies.


    Every continent will have its own cloud, and tech by the end of 2050.


    This is looking like a good bet at this point.

    Even if Republicans are removed from office in the next election, the damage is done. Europe simply can't trust in the long term stability of US policy. If Europe cannot trust in it, neither will any other continent.



    I believe politicians in the EU are chomping at the bit to get a digital services tax implemented against US big tech companies. I think Silicon Valley tech titans really screwed the pooch here.

    They are going to be big targets for trade retaliation and I am not sure how much help the US government will be able to offer. Moreover, if the administration changes, the Democrats will absolutely take apart these tech companies.



    The administration has screwed the pooch here, all trust built between the EU and US since WWII is effectively gone forever. The trust that allowed the EU to assume that the US was largely aligned with European standards and goals and that the US could be trusted as a long term partner for trade, supply our weapons systems, fly our satellites into space, provide our network hardware, our business operating systems, store our documents in the cloud, give us satellite broadband, the dollar as a reserve currency, store our gold, provide our social media platforms, share intel etc. etc. is gone forever. The EU now has no choice but to look internally first for anything that is that even has a whiff of strategic importance. Even if the current administration rolled back everything today the damage is done and the EU has no choice in how they proceed in the long term and has to manage and mitigate the long term risk of being dependent for so much externally.


    Looking at the situation from the shoes of a tech titan (Zuck, Musk, Bezos, etc), i almost see it as the lesser of two evils.

    The problem they had was Lina Khan, who was dead set on breaking up their monopolies. They all decided to get into bed with the Trump admin and help het the guy elected, they all say it was for free speech but let’s get real it’s only because Lina Khan is no longer at FTC.

    But now they have a different problem because Trump decided that tarrifs are a great idea and now they are going to take a massive hit over the next few years as folks outside the US increasingly look for non US cloud solutions.



    The tech hate is bipartisan, however the tech companies got lucky that the Republican choice for President happens to be distinctly corrupt and easy to buy off with money and flattery. Additionally, his feelings are so easily hurt that Congress, which otherwise might implement bi-partisan tech legislation, is afraid of offending him for fear of being targets of his lashing out, so they're just sitting on the sidelines rather than legislating.

    This is a unique set of circumstances; given any other combination of parties in power, with any different President, and they'd be in the bullseye right now.



    > so they're just sitting on the sidelines rather than legislating.

    Not really!! Many are schooling him these days, but he’s too dumb to understand anything



    > The problem they had was Lina Khan, who was dead set on breaking up their monopolies.

    Guess what? The breakup of their monopolies is still going to continue :-)

    Free speech? Did Biden put a Bridle in their mouth to control their speech?



    The breakup of their monopolies is still going to continue

    You believe that, if it brings you comfort.



    America runs a large trade surplus in services, but unfortunately for the US quaternary sector only 1950s-style manufacturing counts in the minds of some key decisionmakers.


    > if the administration changes, the Democrats will absolutely take apart these tech companies.

    I don’t know if it will happen though. Tech companies have a lot of cash and lobby power. But some kind of move is highly needed as the tech sector morphed into something despicable



    Even from a practical point of view. Now, however ill-advised, you're in the middle of a trade war. It's probably taking a huge toll on your economy. Are you gonna mess with what are likely the last pillars of what economic stability you have left? I think medical/healthcare will not be able to be touched for a while. Tech will not be able to be touched for a while. And so on. They just provide too many jobs in an environment where jobs in other sectors will likely be insecure at best and disappearing at worst.


    EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway have huge government innovation funds. Unfortunately they are mostly given to manage to politicians who are loyal, but not very bright, and possibly corrupt.

    Now would be a perfect time to take advantage of the stupidity of Trump and channel these government investments into building European infrastructure providers (cloud and AI), but I very much doubt this will happen.

    Without goverment support there is just no way in Europe to raise the capital that is required to compete with the American big tech.

    EU assigned as commisioner of Startups, Research and Innovation a bulgarian politician called Ekaterina Zaharieva. Bulgaria is the poorest member of EU - shows you how much EU values startups, research and innovation.

    On top of that Zaharieva is a member of the political party Gerb, well known for corruption. A few years ago somebody took pictures of their leader sleeping in his bedroom, surrounded with gold bars and stacks of euros. An ex-financial minister from Gerb is sanctioned for corruption under the Magnitsky Act.



    > A few years ago somebody took pictures of their leader sleeping in his bedroom, surrounded with gold bars and stacks of euros.

    Honestly, who doesn't do that?







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